Chaos Theory: Why the Quest for the “Conservative Obama” is Futile and Flat Wrong

I haven’t heard many analysts or strategists say it outright, but the rhetoric is clear: The GOP needs their own Obama. Wrong! Why? Chaos Theory. Sound like something out of science fiction, (admittedly, I learned about it by reading Micheal Crichton’s Jurassic Park) but it’s real.

On a side note, that’s why Crichton is one of my favorite authors. His masteful blend of science and thriller-fiction is incredible. His books are both page-turners and intellectually stimulating, and they just don’t get old.
Back to Chaos Theory. Chaos Theory says that complex, nonlinear systems can’t be projected aside from that they are unpedictable. Weather is a prime example. With more than 100 years of weather records and great technology, we still can’t accurately predict it too much more than a week out. Here’s why:

Throw a ball at a specific speed and angle, then repeat with a similar speed and angle, and that ball will wind up near the first. But take a weather system and start it with specific conditions, then take another and start it with very similar conditions, and they will almost always behave very differently. Sunshine and blue skies in the first could translate to tornadoes in the second. This is also sometimes called the Butterfly Effect, from the idea that a butterfly flapping its wings can casue a hurricane across the world.

Weather is unpredictable in nature. So are people, and, more specifically, public opinion. So, if the Republicans find a young, charismatic, black man preaching change over the last eight (or , less likely, 4) years, he probably won’t be nearly as successful as Obama. The conditions will undoubtedly be different, and it will not have the same ending. I’m basically just saying that things don’t happen twice in American politics; it is an unpredictable, nonlinear system.

I’m not saying that a young, charismatic, black reformist would be bad for the GOP (though Micheal Steele does about fit the bill and nobody likes him, so maybe it would?). The focus of the GOP on finding the “perfect candidate” needs to be elsewhere. They need to find someone who embodies the party’s ideals and presents them well. If they are going to win, that’s how they’ll do it. There really isn’t any other way. Obama’s campaign was brilliantyes, but I say that it will only work onc. It’s time for everyone to move on.

The GOP needs to now fcous on providing viable alternatives to Obama’s plans, not winning the White House in 2012. Do your jobs, Congress!
-jw